Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das is set to announce the latest monetary policy decisions on Friday morning, with widespread expectations that the benchmark interest rates will remain unchanged.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has held the key interest rate, or repo rate, at 6.5% since February 2023. Despite recent rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada, experts believe the RBI will maintain the status quo due to ongoing inflation concerns.
Das will reveal the decision at 10 a.m., following deliberations by the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which began discussions on Wednesday.
Experts suggest that the MPC may avoid cutting rates as economic growth gains momentum, despite the persistent elevated repo rate of 6.5% since February 2023. A research paper from SBI supports this view, stating that the RBI should continue its current stance of withdrawing accommodation.
The SBI report, titled "Prelude to MPC Meeting," anticipates a potential repo rate cut in the third quarter of the current fiscal year, though it predicts the rate cut cycle will be shallow. The report also projects that CPI-based retail inflation will be close to 5% in May, with data to be released later this month, and is expected to drop to 3% by July.
Retail inflation is forecast to remain below 5% from October until the end of 2024-25.
Ashish Agarwal, Director at AU Real Estate, believes that keeping the repo rate unchanged will sustain affordability for potential homebuyers, thereby maintaining momentum in the housing market.
“With consumer demand driving luxury housing, this move will support macroeconomic indicators and encourage new buyers to invest. As India’s economy grows, the real estate sector will play a significant role, making the current repo rate policy crucial in fuelling demand and contributing to the country’s growth,” Agarwal said.
The government has tasked the RBI with maintaining retail inflation at 4%, with a margin of 2% on either side. Retail inflation stood at 4.83% in April.
The MPC comprises three external members and three RBI officials. The external members are Shashanka Bhide, Ashima Goyal, and Jayanth R. Varma.
